Why this page exists
Anyone can claim their model is sharp after the fact. PolyEdge instead writes down its number in advance and locks it. When each market settles, you'll see whether our fair value beat the venue's closing price (closing-line value) and how well-calibrated we were. Until then, every row below is a promise on the clock.
MarketOur fair valueVenue prices (at snapshot)Sharp bookStatus
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Verify it yourself
The ledger is an append-only file where every entry's fingerprint is sha256(previous_hash + entry). Change any past number and every fingerprint after it breaks — the tampering is obvious. Nothing here can be quietly rewritten.
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We grade the price, never the pick. Prediction markets are risky; nothing here is financial advice.
Fair value is our cross-venue, de-vigged consensus at the moment shown — not a prediction of the outcome.